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The UK Trade Secretary has said he is not planning to follow the EU and impose tariffs on imports of electric vehicles from China. While not criticising the EU for its move, Jonathan Reynolds said that the UK’s export-orientated car sector means that higher tariffs are not in Britain’s interests. Briefings is pleased to see the new government taking advantage of Brexit freedoms to forge an independent trade policy that works in the national interest.
New Trade Secretary embraces Brexit freedoms
The Telegraph reported that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, would like to negotiate a trade deal with the US if Donald Trump is elected President in November. The comments, which come from an interview given in February, are encouraging, but should be treated with some scepticism. The last attempt floundered when the Conservative government was unwilling to compromise on food standards (chlorine-washed chickens were a particular point of contention). Labour would have to resist calls for tight regulation and embrace consumer choice.
A pay review body has recommended a pay rise of 5.5% for millions of public sector employees. This is in line with median private sector wage rises. However, public sector productivity still lags below a pre-pandemic peak, and productivity growth in the public sector fell to zero in the fiscal year 2022-23. The Chancellor, who emphasises discipline and fiscal responsibility at every opportunity, will be under a lot of pressure to accept the recommendations.
Macron ally Yaël Braun-Pivet was re-elected as the head of the French National Assembly. Some took it as a sign that centrists may yet find a way to govern despite having fewer seats than the left wing Popular Front. This is probably overly optimistic as the Republicans, who helped elect Braun-Pivet, have vowed to be a party of opposition. Marine Le Pen may yet benefit from her party’s disappointing result in the parliamentary elections. After two years of chaos orchestrated by Macron and the Popular Front, French voters may be more willing to give a right wing president a chance in 2026.
The European Commission has decided to boycott Hungary’s 6-month presidency of the European Council to express opposition to Viktor Orban’s recent meetings with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The boycott has exposed divisions amongst EU leaders, with some saying they will not join the Commission President and other top EU officials in staying away from meetings in Budapest.
Trouble in paradise
Media
Matt Goodwin on Trump’s opportunity for a landslide
Pimlico Journal on London’s drug gangs
Blog
Reviving our defence capabilities by Adrian Hill
Former Army officer and diplomat Adrain Hill notes that a plan to protect our cities and towns did not feature in a single election manifesto. He reviews RAF capabilities from WW2 through the cold war to conclude that we are woefully under-resourced for any renewed attacks on our cities.
Restoring the RAF to its Cold War sound structure and safe strength is almost as urgent as restoring the Royal Navy though an equally huge task. Keir must get real and start building for any chance of turning preparation for hot war into another cold war. The alternative is a global radiation catastrophe that makes the Chinese leaking Covid on the West look like a minor incident.
Key Points
The government announced £84 million to be spent over the next three years “addressing the reasons for illegal immigration”. The “reasons” in question are, the government says, “conflict, climate change, and humanitarian crises”. This is absurd. £84 million over three years amounts to £560 per illegal migrant. Even if that money was used to pay people directly not to come to Britain it would have no impact whatsoever – most who arrive have paid ten times that for their spot on a dinghy. The idea that it would have any observable impact on conflict, climate change, or humanitarian crises is far-fetched. The idea that what unobservable impact it might have will reduce illegal migration to Britain is beyond belief.
Of course, this is only one side of the government’s ‘plan’ to reduce illegal migration. The other side is “smashing the gangs”. Precisely what this means and how it is going to be achieved is a mystery. The senior leadership of the newly rebranded “Border Security Command” will not be in place until September, and there has been no announcement of more funds for border security. A joint statement by Keir Starmer and Emmanual Macron renewed their commitment to cooperation to reduce boats crossing the channel, and there are suggestions that a deal may be done whereby a certain number of migrants in Calais are allowed to come to the UK in return for greater efforts by French police to stop boats setting off. Needless to say, this would be a purely cosmetic solution, and only a partial one at that. The prospect of government-sponsored channel-crossings will only attract greater numbers and there is only so much the police can do to stop people determined to get in a dinghy and set out to sea.
The government seems determined not to address the real reasons for illegal immigration. The reasons why people come to Britain illegally is because they know that, if they make it, they are almost guaranteed to be granted asylum and they know that, if they are granted asylum, the UK has a legal obligation (which it imposes on itself) to give them housing, healthcare, and a weekly stipend. For as long as this remains the case, there will be a strong incentive for people across the world to risk the journey to Britain which no amount of gang-smashing or international cooperation will counterbalance.
