Dear Subscribers,
This week on BfB, Wilf Glasby explains how new UK labour productivity data provides another nail in the coffin for the argument that Brexit has been an economic failure. Catherine McBride and Robert Tombs have appeared in the media, commenting on the EU’s offer of ‘associate membership’ for Canada and the history of Anglo-French relations respectively. And lastly, we discuss Sir Tony Blair’s 10-year plan for Britain to rejoin the EU and the illusions it shares with Rejoiner prejudices more broadly.
New on BfB: New UK data further undermines the ‘Brexit economic damage’ narrative by Wilf Glasby
New UK data further undermines the ‘Brexit economic damage’ narrative
The mainstream narrative that Brexit has damaged the UK’s productivity performance is often accepted unquestioningly. This claim has always been hard to square with the actual productivity data, and now the release of new upgraded data has undermined it still further. The new data show UK labour productivity growth was faster since 2015 than previously thought, and better than in most other advanced economies. As Glasby concludes, the narrative that Brexit has adversely affected UK productivity has no basis in the actual data, and it is time to bury it once and for all.
Explaining Iceland’s Historic Vote Against the EU by Hannes Hólmsteinn Gissurarson
Last month, in a historic referendum, Icelanders voted against resuming accession talks with the EU. Icelandic political scientist Professor Hannes Gissurarson explains why the referendum took place and why the No side won — and why the Yes campaign's arguments will be wearily familiar to British readers who lived through 2016.
BfB contributors in the media:
Catherine McBride on Sunday with Michael Portillo
Catherine McBride discusses the realities of the EU’s offer of ‘associate membership’ to Canada, as well as the implications of the EU Reset with regard to the Erasmus scheme, Sanitary and Phytosanitary reset, and Britain’s adoption of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
Robert Tombs on Triggernometry: Historian Robert Tombs on the 1,000-Year Rivalry Between Britain And France
Robert Tombs discusses the historical development of Anglo-French relations.
Robert Tombs in The Daily Telegraph: Charles de Gaulle saved France twice. I’m not sure anyone can save Europe today
In light of the two-part biopic about Charles de Gaulle (La Bataille de Gaulle), Robert Tombs reflects on his relevance for modern political practice. He particularly notes de Gaulle’s success in ‘bequeath[ing]…a ruling elite devoted to the national interest, and with the belief that France had a purpose and a value.’
And here: Be proud and state the case for the Union to these shabby nationalists
Following Trump’s comments on the desirability of unified Ireland, Robert Tombs mounts a robust defence of the Union from the well-established nationalisms of Ireland, Scotland and Wales on one side, and an insurgent English nationalism from another.
Blair’s 10-year plan to rejoin the EU
Ahead of the Labour Party conference, Sir Tony Blair has called on Andy Burnham to take Britain back into the EU, setting out a 10-year plan for doing so published by the Tony Blair Institute. He believes that Britain ‘faces a dilemma over the European Union’: it feels ‘excluded’ from Europe’s political process, but also finds the EU as it currently operates unattractive, since it ‘is pursuing the wrong policies in areas like technology innovation’. How to square this circle?
Sir Tony believes that Britain could strengthen its hand in negotiations with the EU by appealing to other members state that also want the EU to change its policies on technology and immigration. He also points to the EU’s offer of ‘associate membership’ to Canada as evidence of a newfound flexibility, which he assumes would also be extended to Britain.
Beneath the optimistic, technocratic tone, Sir Tony writes about politics like a detached Machiavellian (Machiavelli, after all, also wrote in retirement): ‘There is no point in inching towards Europe as we feel what British public opinion might accommodate. We should be clear that we want back into a formal relationship with the EU.’ ‘Public opinion’, in short, is something for the government to shape and use, and Burnham is under no obligation to keep to the ‘red lines’ of the 2024 manifesto.
Yet for all his apparent lack of illusions, Sir Tony is strikingly naïve in assuming that the EU would be so accommodating to Britain. From the EU’s point of view, it makes little difference whether Britain edges gradually closer, as with the current ‘Reset’, or commits wholeheartedly as Sir Tony’s proposes. Rejoiners seem blind to the fact that in either case the EU would make vast demands of a rejoining Britain. Wolfgang Münchau and Yanis Varoufakis, for instance, believe that Britain would be required to join the Euro and Schengen, with few if any of the opt-outs it once enjoyed.
In an editorial, the Telegraph views Sir Tony’s intervention as part of the general Rejoiner belief that ‘Brexit is the source of all evil and the EU the antidote.’ For Rejoiners like Burnham, it argues, rejoining is less a policy for dealing with our economic woes than it is an ‘excuse’ for ignoring the real issues of ‘high energy prices, punitive taxes and excessive public spending’. The piece comes close to the main flaw in Sir Tony’s vision without quite naming it: that as much as he believes the EU can change in the way he would like, there is no sign that it will, or even that it has any desire to.
What we’re reading:
Julian Jessop for Britain Unbound: What Carney and Blair both get wrong on the EU
Ambrose Pritchard-Evans for The Daily Telegraph: Labour’s love affair with Right-wing Europe will end in tears
Chris Bayliss for The Critic: What’s the point of Britain’s foreign policy?
