Out of their Depth and sometimes Collusion.
So the peace deal is reduced to not hitting power plants during spring. That shows how much damage Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are doing to Russia’s oil and gas exports. Putin makes rings around Trump and his White House staff. We know from Fiona Hill’s observations that Trump rarely reads briefing papers, swallowing whole Putin’s flannel over the phone for two hours. Putin broke the deal with a strike on a power plant two hours after hanging up, although Putin claims this happened before his cessation order went out.
The respected magazine, Foreign Affairs, has a new podcast interview with Fiona Hill. According to Fiona Hill, Trump’s team told Zelensky what he had to do when recently calling on Trump at the White House. Sign the minerals deal, express crawling gratitude. The minerals deal was with Trump personally but Zelensky, speaking English, did not fully grasp this nuance which raises questions about Trump’s ultimate motives. Fiona Hill believes the Ukrainians should provide Zelensky with a top notch interpreter if there are any future meetings. I won’t spoil the podcast by revealing more.
On the 14 March, while visiting the Justice Department, Trump delivered an hour long sermon to the media. It was a text book demonstration of how Putin uses Trump for tactical advantage on the battlefield, combined with domestic propaganda aimed at the Russian audience. Trump claimed that he had asked Putin to spare the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk salient who were surrounded by the Russian Army – providing they hand over their weapons and surrender. That gives Putin’s media spokesmen a handy TV clip of Donald Trump confirming that the Russian Army has surrounded large numbers of Ukrainian troops.
What are the Facts?
According to the experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC there are no Ukrainian troops surrounded anywhere along the whole line of contact throughout Ukraine. Moreover, ISW say that within Russia the overwhelming majority of military bloggers say exactly the same.
Let me quote ISW because their intelligence work raises serious questions about the concept of Trump as America’s commander-in-chief and whether he is an ally of NATO or Russia. ISW also say they have observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine.
During a press conference on 13 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin, claimed that Russian forces have “isolated” Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and that it is “impossible” for small groups of Ukrainian forces to withdraw from positions in Kursk Oblast. Putin claimed that Ukrainian forces will not be able to leave Kursk at all “if” Russian forces can conduct a “physical blockade” in the coming days. Putin stated during a Russian Security Council meeting on 14 March that Russian forces have “blocked” unspecified Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 14 March that Russian authorities are fabricating claims about the alleged “encirclement” of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast in order to influence the political and information scene. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces have regrouped and withdrawn to more advantageous defensive positions in Kursk Oblast and that Ukrainian forces are not under threat of encirclement. Putin has repeatedly failed to acknowledge that the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast extends from the Ukrainian-Russian international border and that Ukrainian forces routinely transit the sections of the border under Ukrainian control.
One Russian milblogger complained that Russian forces are unable to encircle Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast because Russian forces cannot conduct rapid, mechanised breakthroughs into Ukrainian rear areas
Others published maps on 14 and 15 March showing Russian and Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast that do not indicate Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces, and two Russian milbloggers explicitly denied Putin’s claim that Russian forces encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in the area on 13 and 14 March. One milblogger characterised Putin’s claims as a narrative intended to influence US President Donald Trump ahead of peace negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Russian forces are unsuccessfully attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast, that no encirclement currently exists, and stated that Putin is attempting to delay discussion of the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal by spreading these claims. Independent Ukrainian sources also denied Putin’s claims about Russian encirclements of Ukrainian forces and noted that Ukrainian forces maintain the ability to manoeuvre from their remaining positions in Kursk Oblast despite a difficult tactical situation. ISW has still not observed any Russian milblogger claim or geolocated footage suggesting that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces appear to maintain egress routes across the international border from their positions in Kursk Oblast at the moment.
The White House is out of its depth, and colluding with Russia.
ISW assess that Putin is attempting to change the sequence of talks to push Trump into making pre-emptive concessions on issues that are not part of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire but are part of Russia’s war aims. The acceptance of these Russian demands in the context of negotiations for an immediate ceasefire would cede valuable US and Ukrainian leverage during future negotiations to secure a lasting peace in Ukraine. This would be dangerous for the whole of Europe.
For example Ukrainians are regularly warned by Trump’s team that they must give up territory. Three big cities are within range of the Russian’s heavy artillery – at Kherson the Russians are across the Dnipro River, they are 30 kilometres from Kharkiv and 25 kilometres from Zaporizhzhia. Thousands of other towns and settlements would need adequate protection. The present front line is 2100 kilometres long. Russia is building a large road and a railway to connect the occupied parts of Ukraine with Russian cities and thereby increase Putin’s hold on eastern Ukraine. All this leaves Ukraine vulnerable to a future massive all arms attack – infantry, tanks, artillery, drones, missiles and air strikes. Trump is trying to dump the problems and task of protecting Ukraine on Britain and Europe while – one must allow the possibility – making personal gain himself through private dealings with Putin.
Strong Ukrainian armed forces backed by security guarantees remain the most important component of sustainable peace in Ukraine and for deterrence of future Russian aggression. Putin does not want NATO forces providing security. Our message should be simple, no NATO security force, no peace deal – because the cost for Britain and Europe to supply and support Ukraine under such adverse terms would be massive. France even might have to back the security force with some of its tactical nuclear weapons based in Ukraine or next door in Turkey or Cyprus.
The best way to reduce the potential task and cost is to make sure Ukraine recovers strategically important territory. I would demand the Russians withdraw from the whole southern region of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River. That shortens the line by a third and clears out the Russians from a dangerous nuclear power station.
What should the Willing Coalition Do?
Unless Britain and Europe get tough with both Trump and Putin our peoples will face a huge burden for years. And the smart way to avoid this fate is a complete takeover of the negotiations by Starmer, Macron and their coalition of the willing. Don’t negotiate with this White House. Do what the State Department does. Go straight to the American people. The Global Public Affairs bureau has expert staff who explain foreign policy to the American people. There will be a Trump tantrum but the Embassy will have a sympathetic hearing.
Sending your golf buddy to negotiate with Putin is either very silly or a deliberate hostile action, certainly not the behaviour of a friend and ally. If the United States can do that to Ukraine, they can do it to any of their other allies, anytime, with little or no warning. This is no longer the land of FDR, Harry Truman, Ike, Kennedy, Reagan, Bush Senior and Bill Clinton. We are back in the land of Tricky Dicky. I fear Trump and Vance remind the world that once again America is a fickle friend. Ask the South Vietnamese and the Afghans. Ask all the countries that came to America’s side after 9/11 when the White House invoked Article Five of the NATO treaty.
Ring mastering this betrayal took Putin less than a week. We have four more years of Trump, if he lasts that long, This is not how you make America great again. Quite the opposite. Trump is nearly 80 and clearly not up to the task. He looks tired, overweight, grumpy and aging fast. His ramblings show he is living on another planet. Fiona Hill’s observations imply the lure of personal gain may lurk along the corridors of power. If the United States remains keen to stay at the diplomatic table they need to make some serious contributions.
