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How likely is a Brexit reversal?

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We draw readers’ attention to a concise and conclusive analysis by a leading German commentator, who thinks it is not likely at all. ‘‘I struggle to see how a country that is not asking to become an EU member would do this voluntarily.” Here is a brief summary, with the link to the full article below

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The main obstacle to a full or partial rejoining is regulatory divergence – not by the UK, but by the EU, which has been ‘a hyper-active regulator and lawmaker since Brexit’, including on ‘green’ energy (50 new laws), and restrictions on the digital economy.  Münchau argues that it would not make sense for the UK to adopt these.  ‘I struggle to see how a country that is not asking to become an EU member would do this voluntarily.’  He adds ‘The UK could do some serious damage to its industry if it adopted legislation or regulations made by third countries for themselves.’  And of course, as he points out, the EU is in a long term ‘structural economic slump’ which it shows no sign of remedying: ‘The UK shares some of the problems but has the advantage of a functioning capital market and a generalised absence of old-industry corporatism’.  Membership of the Single Market would not be possible without unacceptable conditions that Starmer has ruled out.  Membership of the Customs Union would be irrelevant: ‘hardly noticeable in day-to-day life’. Border checks would still be needed, and the UK’s massive services industry has little to gain from a customs union.  In short Münchau sees no significant area for cooperation except perhaps in military procurement.

His final advice to UK Rejoiners is ‘to understand the sheer magnitude of what they are up against. It would not be a Brexit reversal. It would be something completely new. Something that would have to happen after Starmer.’

https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/how-likely-is-a-brexit-reversal

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Briefings For Britain