Post Segments
One gains an impression after the Ukrainians crossed the international frontier into Kursk Oblast and invaded Russia that they learnt a lot from their stalled counter-offensive last year along the southern fronts. That plan aimed to penetrate 60 to 80 kilometres into Zaporizhia Oblast and make a broader penetration along the eastern bank of the River Dnieper from Kherson to Odessa. Both counter-offensives soon stalled and although there were gains, they were modest. Trying to penetrate well prepared defences screened by large scale minefields asked too much of the forces available.
A second lesson during last winter and this spring is the price civilians are paying for the caution of the Biden Administration. Despite a public trans-Atlantic debate, the Biden Administration won’t lift restrictions on how the Ukrainians may use long range strike weapons. The US fear is that Putin would regard this as NATO using Ukraine as camouflage for attacks on targets inside Russia. Besides, why take the risk, a prolonged full scale war already weakens Russia. Only this week, Stephen Biddle, Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Defence Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, put the case for restraint with an article in Foreign Affairs.
On this side of the Atlantic we face added complications caused by the EU’s ambition to become a military super-power. EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell said on 30 August that the decision to lift such restrictions is up to each EU member state individually. Not all EU states provide Ukraine with long-range weapons. The Czechs President says Ukraine should use its Western-provided weapons in accordance with the United Nations Charter. Estonia wants to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia. Poland supports lifting restrictions on long-range strikes against military targets in Russia when using Polish-provided weapons. Italy will not allow Ukraine to use Italian-provided weapons for strikes against military targets on Russian territory as neither NATO nor Italy are at war with Russia. Italy has reportedly supplied Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles.
The previous United Kingdom government wanted to allow Ukrainian forces to use UK-provided Storm Shadows for strikes into Russia, but American prohibitions are preventing the United Kingdom from unilaterally doing this. France supported the UK stance. However, the new Prime Minister, Kier Starmer has said that he will go along with whatever the Americans decide. Perhaps he’s just too busy cancelling fighters and generally dismantling our defences but it’s not leadership and unworthy of Labour’s history on defence. ISW suggest that Italy’s refusal to allow Ukraine to use Italian-provided Storm Shadows for such strikes may mean that depending on the country of origin, Ukrainian forces have to abide by different rules for the use of the same missile.
Like Stephen Biddle, comments from Biden Administration officials focus on Russia’s redeployment of aircraft so they are based beyond the range of western provided missiles. Their comments have largely ignored the majority of targets within range of ATACMS that Ukrainian forces could strike if US restrictions were lifted. On the 24 August ISW issued a report with satellite photos to make the point. Many of the 233 military and paramilitary objects within range of ATACMS are large military bases, communications stations, logistics centres, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and permanent headquarters. All would be extremely difficult, perhaps impossible to quickly redeploy or rapidly harden. ISW say they have not collected open-source evidence of redeployments of military assets from the majority of Russia’s rear areas. The mass redeployment of assets away from such facilities would present significant challenges to Russian logistics throughout the wider theatre. Disruptions to Russian logistics throughout the deep rear would also constrain ongoing Russian offensive operations along the whole frontline. The 233 Russian military and paramilitary objects within ranges of ATACMS missiles that are not airfields support Russian command and control (C2), intelligence, reconnaissance, logistical, and repair support for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine and in Kursk Oblast. Just because the Russians moved aircraft to bases further away from Ukraine does not mean there’s no point in attacking all the other targets. Far from it.
How do the Ukrainians escape this Political Maze?
Ukrainians living near the international frontier along the north of their country suffered throughout winter and spring from air attacks employing glide bombs. The Russians fitted simple wings to ordinary free-fall bombs. This gives the bombs a range of about thirty miles allowing an aircraft to release its munitions while remaining over Russia beyond the range of Ukraine’s air defences. An obvious counter-measure is seize enough ground in Russia to place Ukraine’s population beyond range.
For almost a year Russia’s army has concentrated on attack and made gains, small ones, largely in the east. These attacks have been carried out largely by small infantry attacks, at platoon or company level, thirty to a hundred men. Russia’s army has been less successful at launching attacks with combined arms – reconnaissance troops, tanks, infantry in armoured personnel carriers, artillery and supporting engineers, signals, logistic troops and medical teams. Probably this weakness results from the loss of thousands of experienced officers, NCOs and soldiers followed by hasty training for their replacements. I hope George Robertson points out to Starmer that you don’t get trained soldiers by slashing their training and taking away their ammunition.
Over last year the British Army trained, properly, thousands of Ukrainians soldiers how to carry out combined arms warfare. That’s why Ben Wallace, quite rightly, warns that Putin has his sights on Britain. Putin is obsessed, he even believes MI6 are behind his battlefield failures. Not exactly the ideal time for Starmer to strip the British people of their already inadequate existing defence forces. All three services should triple in size and strength.
The Ukrainians had a stroke of luck. The most lightly defended stretch of the Russian front was along the international frontier with Kursk Oblast in Russia – where the glide bombs were stored and launched. Zelensky decided to call Putin’s bluff. A plan was developed but according to an article in The Times not revealed to the Americans in case the Russians were tipped off.
What if the article is correct? For an old diplomat that dramatically changes the scenery. Biden’s caution stemmed from his fear that Putin could widen the war by attacking a NATO country or deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
For a start the Ukrainians took the Russians by surprise, managing to assemble assault forces equivalent to the fighting power of a pair of combined arms divisions without the Russians and the Americans spotting unusual activity with satellites or picking up a surge in signal traffic. (Having worked closely with the Americans in hot and cold war, I find this hard to believe though not impossible. Diplomatic blinkers perhaps?) The Ukrainians crossed into Russia on the 6 August and very quickly penetrated as much as thirty kilometres in places though mostly about half that distance. They quickly set about destroying a depot for glide bombs and part of Russia’s early warning system. They’re also making a point of treating well all civilians abandoned by Russia’s retreating army. The Ukrainians keep very quiet about any contacts with Russians who do not support Putin’s war. Russians in Kursk Oblast have told British journalists they like the Ukrainians and don’t understand why there’s a war, they want life to go back to how it was before. Zelensky has made clear that Ukraine won’t stay in Kursk Oblast.
In July and August 1943 another Kursk Salient saw the largest tank battle in history – one would think the Russians ought to have remembered! (I witnessed the largest tank battle since World War Two fought around the Lahore and Sialkot in September 1965 – very noisy with white gunflashes climbing into the night until directly overhead.)
Suddenly the Russians had to scrape around for more than twenty-thousand men to block the first invasion of Russian soil since 1941. And Russia has been pulling significant brigade size forces from less critical sectors of the frontline such as western Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, Kharkiv and the Crimea. Those parts of the front where Russia had some success have been left to fend for themselves. Most are along the north to south contact line from Luhansk Oblast to Donetsk Oblast. Already this may have changed because there are reports of small units, possibly held in tactical reserve, being withdrawn from this part of the line and sent to Kursk. If that increases, pressure on the Ukrainians will lessen. They are defending a front line more than 750 miles long. There are still mistakes. An F 16 fighter and its pilot may have been shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot missile.
Zelensky could have more surprises…
On Saturday 25 August, Ukraine’s independence day, President Zelensky confirmed the existence and the first use of Ukraine’s new unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV/drone) which he said has been named Palyanytsya – after a popular breakfast bread. Ukraine’s previous aerial drones have all been propeller driven. Palyantsya has a micro-jet engine, a 20 kilogram warhead, is built from fibre-glass with a big fuel tank and range of 380 miles. That puts a lot more than 233 targets within range.
One does wonder if the whole debate about long range strike missiles also served Zelensky as a handy disinformation campaign to distract the Russians (and NATO) while he prepared to invade and built his own long range stealth drones. They’ve just sunk the biggest ferry between Russia and Crimea with another type of drone. Kursk may be a long way from Moscow for most Russians but the next stealth drone could have a bigger jet engine and double the range. That would bring fighting in Kursk much closer to Moscow.
And what if Kamala Harris wins in November? She removes the threat of Donald Trump stopping all aid to Ukraine and handing its people to Putin on a plate. At the moment Putin is content to wait for the American Presidential Election. If his chum, Donald, doesn’t win, he might want to talk. Never trust people who always break promises.
PS During early August the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC issued a special report about how to restore movement in contemporary warfare. This report looked at the astonishing amount of information generated by the present warfare in Ukraine and the variety of sea, ground and air weapons that resist or assist modern commanders. Whether you’re in the armed forces or a diplomat – you will find it a very instructive, fascinating read.
