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newsletter 06/06/24

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In the election debate on Friday evening, Stephen Flynn representing the SNP claimed that Brexit had cost the UK £40 billion in lost tax receipts.

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Dear Subscribers,

In the election debate on Friday evening, Stephen Flynn representing the SNP claimed that Brexit had cost the UK £40 billion in lost tax receipts. Briefings has already debunked this wild claim along with the wider assumption, repeated ad nauseam by the remainer press, that Brexit is to blame for whatever economic ills Britain faces. With arch-remainer and self-proclaimed “internationalist” Keir Starmer about to enter 10 Downing Street, it is more important than ever that facts and reason win out over prejudice and fantasy when it comes to the UK’s relationship with Europe.

The wheels are starting to come off Rishi Sunak’s election campaign. So bad is it that some are speculating that the PM will resign and let someone else pickup whatever is left of the Conservative campaign. After Nigel Farage’s decision to stand, the Tories are worried that Reform will start polling higher than the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the D-Day debacle looks like it will haunt Rishi at least until polls open.

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Sunak missing in action

Europeans have started voting for representatives to the EU parliament. Right-wing parties are expected to make significant gains across the continent. Ursula Von Der Leyen, the President of the Commission, will be hoping that the European People’s Party, the coalition of liberal-conservatives of which she is a member, will win enough seats for her to keep her job, but it is by no means guaranteed. The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, has called for an “alternative” coalition of right-leaning parties to promote a “Europe of nations” as opposed to the federal model of the “ever-closer union”.

Israeli forces rescued 4 of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas on October 7th during a raid in central Gaza this week. 120 hostages remain in the hands of their captors, of whom 43 are thought to have died or been killed. Negotiations for a ceasefire have stalled, after a mixed reaction from Israeli politicians to a US proposal circulated to members of the UN Security Council in a draft resolution.

Ukrainian forces struck a latest-generation Russian jet for the first time this week. The jet was parked in an airfield inside Russian territory. It shows that Ukrainian forces are getting bolder in their strikes on Russian soil and benefitting from the high-tech weaponry provided by the US and other western nations.

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Russian airforce suffers another setback

Media

Matt Goodwin on the Tory elites in meltdown

Karl Williams on how to curb immigration

Blog

David Goodhart on the Impact of Brexit

In this interview with the French Newspaper Figaro, David Goodhart of ‘Somewhere and Anywheres’ fame assesses for a French audience the impact of Brexit and the meaning of populism in Britain. Figaro’s questions are typed in bold.

It is absurd to call Brexit a failure. It is only 4 years old. Come and ask me in another 25 years. And, by the way, I voted remain! What was a failure was the lack of preparation for it – we had Brexit without a plan, because it was so unexpected – and then the mess that was made by the whole British political class of both the internal and external negotiation over those three long years. The EU did not cover itself in glory either and cynically exploited the Good Friday Agreement in Ireland.

What has Brexit ever done for us? By Catherine McBride

Brexit has returned sovereignty to the UK – its most important attribute. But it also means we must choose our politicians carefully. They now have control over our laws, money, taxes, trade, transport, farming, fishing, financial services, science and technology, migration, and legislative scrutiny. Here is a brief rundown of some of Brexit’s results, so far.

There are many other Brexit benefits, but many are particular to industries and generally unknown to the general population. Unfortunately, most of the Mainstream Media doesn’t believe these regulatory changes are newsworthy and prefers to claim that Brexit isn’t working. But it is, and we must continue to support it. Please vote wisely in the upcoming election.

Key Points

Pundits are already calling Clacton for Nigel Farage. A Survation poll conducted earlier in the year, before Rishi Sunak starting tailspinning his way to electoral oblivion and when Reform were polling much lower than they are now, predicted that he would win if he stood. The constituency is staunchly pro-Brexit, largely white and largely working class. In other words, it ticks all the right boxes for Farage. UK politics might start to look very different with Farage in the House of Commons.

For the first time in years, perhaps decades, there will be a voice in Parliament which is not afraid to speak critically about immigration. While immigration becomes an issue almost every election, opposition parties consistently fail to hold governments to account when promises to reduce net migration are broken. With Farage in Parliament, we should expect the incoming Labour government to face persistent scrutiny in the House of Commons on their immigration policies. Whether this will have any effect on policy is hard to say. Even with a huge majority, mass immigration is so unpopular that a Labour government may find Farage a difficult man to ignore.

Farage will also make life difficult for whatever is left of the Parliamentary Conservative Party. Whoever takes over from Sunak as leader of the party will have a hard job carving out some definite ideological space between Labour and the Lib Dems on the one hand and Reform on the other. If, as seems likely, it is the ‘wets’ that are in charge after the election, Farage will exert huge pressure on their right flank, especially as some of the better-known Tory MPs who are likely to keep their seats (Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg) have more ideologically in common with Farage than they do with the ‘one nation’ wing of the Conservative Party.

It is less clear what Farage himself has to gain or lose from a seat in Parliament. His flourishing career as a broadcaster will have to be put on the backburner, as will his plans to participate in Donald Trump’s reelection campaign. The day-job of an MP, hosting surgeries, answering correspondence, dealing with casework, may cramp his style.

If his performances in the EU parliament from when he was an MEP are anything to go buy, then it is certain that Farage will make Parliament a much more entertaining place. Gifted orators are few and far between nowadays, and his passionate style will make the Labour front bench look wooden by contrast.

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