Dear Subscribers,
The EU has blocked the UK’s attempt to join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM). The PEM consists of common rules of origin and cumulation, which facilitates trade between members. Despite months of Keir Starmer’s ‘reset’ of UK-EU relations, the EU still seems to jump at any opportunity to punish the UK. As well as the EU, members of the PEM include Algeria, Montenegro, Moldova, and Georgia.
Former President of the European Council and current President of Poland Donald Tusk has announced that he is sending troops to the border with Germany to stem the flow of illegal immigration. Despite being part of the Schengen area, Poland will impose border controls in response to a German policy of sending migrants who are accused of having entered Germany through Poland back across the border.
Tusk ends free movement from Germany
The Ministry of Justice has announced an increase in legal aid for immigrants contesting their right to remain in the UK. This is allegedly to help to ‘clear the backlog’ of claims. It is extraordinary that people with very limited connection to the UK are benefitting from an increasing share of state funds at a time when legal aid cuts are preventing UK citizens from accessing justice.
Labour ministers appear to be paving the way for further tax increases in the Autumn budget. After Starmer’s spectacular U-turn on welfare reforms, the government finds itself having to choose between abandoning its own fiscal rules or raising taxes (spending cuts being outside the realm of possibility, apparently). The left-wing press seem to prefer the latter.
Labour ministers plot tax rises
Palestine Action, a group of activists who use disruption tactics inspired by Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil, has been proscribed by the government after breaking into an RAF base and damaging equipment. 29 members of the group were arrested on Saturday at a protest in Westminster.
Media
James Heale on Angela Rayner’s growing authority within the Labour Party
Kristian Niemitz on Labour’s plan for the NHS
Blog
A Tale of Two Cities by Adrian Hill
Ex-para-trooper Adrian Hill contrasts the dignity of Trooping the Colours in London with Trump’s cynical hijacking of the 250th anniversary parade in Washington.
The price in trust that America will pay for this Trump doctrine will be horrendous. Imagine an America that no longer has thirty bases in Europe. Then imagine an America that has no bases any longer on Australian, Canadian, New Zealand or British territory worldwide. I’ve been to American bases that most American and British voters don’t know exist. Make them UK Eyes Only and the USA becomes blind in the Near East.
Key Points
One year in, the wheels seem to be coming off Keir Starmer’s government. The Prime Minister’s authority has taken a significant hit and the nation’s finances look increasingly precarious. But this is no cause for celebration amongst those who lean to the right politically. There is little reason to think that this government will not continue to govern for another four years, in which time it will continue to do serious damage. What is needed now is to lay the necessary groundwork for the next right-of-centre government to undo much of what this government has and will go on to do.
Labour ministers gave themselves 7/10 on their first year in government over the weekend. This seems rather generous. The Prime Minister seems to be swerving from political crisis to political crisis, all the while qualifying or outright abandoning promises of ‘change’ made before the election. The humiliating U-turn on welfare spending has damaged his authority and empowered rebellious backbenchers, leaving him and his Chancellor facing financial ruin if they do not raise taxes in the Autumn. Opinion polls show all this taking its toll: Reform now enjoys a 9-point lead on Labour.
But this is no cause for celebration. Labour still have a huge majority and face no effective opposition in the House of Commons. They can continue to unpick Brexit and squeeze private enterprise safe in the knowledge that they have another 4 years before facing the electorate. Even an incompetent administration in these circumstances can cause lasting damage to the country. Short of a change in leadership and a financial crisis, there seems to be nothing that could induce an early election.
It is always easier to complain than to suggest a way forward. Right-of-centre politicians would do better not to spend too much time and energy goading Labour on its failings. Rather, they should let the state of the country speak for itself, and focus on finding a way forward. A good starting point would be tax reforms: the current byzantine system is crying out for simplification and allows politicians to make misleading claims without outright lying.
The experience of the Conservatives since 2010 should serve as a warning to future right-wing governments that winning power is not enough. Having a plan to overhaul entrenched interests and left-wing power bases is essential before any future government takes office.
