Dear Subscribers,
The Prime Minister was in Ireland for talks with the Irish Premier Simon Harris. It is their second meeting since Starmer won the election. Both leaders say they want to ‘reset’ relations to solve persisting problems over the land border on the island of Ireland and the sea border that now exists between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The new government’s policy on Ireland should be watched closely — Sue Gray, Starmer’s Chief of Staff, has raised eyebrows for her personal interest in funding the renovation of a stadium long associated with the IRA and Irish nationalism. One senior figure in Sinn Fein has said he regards her as a “friend at court”.
Starmer’s European charm offensive continues
Emmanuel Macron has appointed Michel Barnier as the new French Prime Minister, a move which has enraged newly-elected leftist MPs who form the largest contingent in the French Parliament. In his memoirs, Barnier recalls meeting Starmer when he was Shadow Brexit Secretary and thinking that Starmer would go on to become Prime Minister and bring the UK back into the EU.
The US, UK and EU are among the signatories of the first legally-binding international treaty on AI, which is intended to protect human rights and the rule of law from potentially dangerous new technologies. The treaty does not intend to regulate particular technologies, and is said to be “technology neutral” but rather sets out principles with which the use of AI must be consistent.
History in the making?
A German official said that the government was considering using accommodation facilities in Rwanda built for the UK’s now scrapped resettlement scheme to house asylum seekers while their applications are being assessed. It seems that European leaders are slowly waking up to the reality of the migration crisis and recognising that so-called “off-shoring” is the only tried and tested way of stemming the flow of economic migrants into Europe. The new Labour government still claims to want to solve the problem by “smashing the gangs”.
The Netherlands has announced a rapid expansion of its armed forces, alongside an increase in defence spending to meet the NATO requirement of 2% of GDP. The government intends to buy F-35 jets, frigates, and drones while also establishing the country’s first tank battalion since disbanding all remaining tank battalions in 2011.
Media
Matt Goodwin on populism in Germany
Briefings co-editor Robert Tombs on Left wing distortions of History
Blog
How to recognise misinformation on Brexit by Catherine McBride
Kier Starmer wants school pupils to learn how to spot misinformation. I suspect we could all learn more about this including many politicians. I was recently asked to review a publication by an anti-Brexit think tank. The report was dated Jan 2024 so I wondered why anyone would be interested in it. However, as I did my usual checks of the numbers, I realised why I had been given this task.
The paper claimed that trade between EU nations had ‘boomed’ since Brexit and that the UK had been left out of this ‘boom’ because of Brexit. To ‘prove this they produced a chart indexed to 2019 even though the transition period didn’t finish until the end of December 2020. During the period 2019 and 2020, Brexit did not affect UK-EU trade although covid lockdowns, travel bans, and factory closures did. Rule number 1 for students of disinformation – always check the dates used for any indexing, the indexing date can easily be chosen to distort the conclusions.
The CPTPP — a benefit of Brexit by Catherine McBride
Britain is now a party to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes many of the world’s richest and most dynamic economies. This would have been impossible without Brexit, and it is a very different kind of agreement to being a member state of the EU. This article explains why.
It was very encouraging to see the new Trade Minister, The Rt Hon Douglas Alexander, announce the accession of the UK to the CPTPP. This coincided with rumours that the Prime Minister was trying to rejoin the EU by meeting with Chancellor Scholz in Germany and President Macron in France. If this was the aim of the meetings, it is misplaced. UK trade with the EU is doing fine but is hampered by the EU’s sluggish economies – not Brexit. While allowing the UK to fully benefit from increased trade with the dynamic economies of the CPTPP, will help the UK achieve the economic growth the Prime Minister is looking for.
Key Points
The current border situation in Northern Ireland is far from satisfactory, so the Prime Minister is right to want talks with his Irish counterpart over how things might be improved. There are a couple of reasons to think that Keir Starmer will have a better chance of extracting concessions from Dublin than his predecessors. If he were acting in the national interest, this is surely what he would do. But there is a tradition in the Labour Party of promoting Irish national interests as enthusiastically as British ones. Starmer should confound the doubters, be a tough negotiator, and strike a new deal with Ireland that puts British national interests first.
The first thing that Starmer has on his side is a large parliamentary majority and a loyal party behind him. Throughout the Brexit negotiations, successive Conservative governments were hampered by weak parliamentary majorities and a deeply divided party. Even Rishi Sunak, with a nominal majority of over 60, struggled to tow a line which would satisfy enough wings of his own party. Starmer, by contrast, can rely on a loyal crop of new MPs to back him on any deal he brings back.
The second is the increasing importance of security to European nations. Ireland has long been a freeloader when it comes to national security. It relies on the RAF to defend its airspace and the Royal Navy to defend its waters. Not a member of NATO, it nevertheless benefits from NATO defence infrastructure in the Atlantic and the Northern Sea. Five or six years ago, before the escalation to tensions with Russia and the outbreak of wars around the world, and Irish government might have been less afraid of gambling with its current security arrangement. In 2024, this is much less prudent, and Starmer could exploit the reliance of Ireland on British defence assets to force a more favourable compromise on the border.
The third is the emergence of political problems in Europe which are more important to the EU than Ireland. Russian aggression in the East, the prospect of a second Trump presidency, rising nationalist and other fringe political movements, and ongoing trouble with migration are probably all higher on the EU’s list of priorities than the Irish border. Given that European leaders see Starmer as a friend, they might be less willing to indulge an Irish government which refuses to compromise when they have more important problems to deal with.
Removing the de facto border in the Irish Sea and coming to a better arrangement on customs controls on the island of Ireland would be a coup for a new Labour Prime Minister after years of Conservative failure. It would also prove that Starmer meant it when he said he wanted to be a good Prime Minister for all parts of the UK. Removing customs burdens for British businesses who operate in Northern Ireland would be a real achievement.
