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Dear Subscribers,
After much huffing and puffing, Michel Barnier was back in Britain to continue talks on Thursday. Discussions have continued over the weekend, with a 150-strong contingent of British civil servants and lawyers heading to Brussels next week. This is a major undertaking, and one which suggests that both sides remain serious about getting an agreement.
Emmanuel Macron continues to stand out as the EU leader taking the toughest line against the UK, egged on by French fishermen who fear that their profits are at risk. But he also faces renewed pressure from other EU leaders, who do not want the fishing question to scupper the whole deal.
While we continue to watch and wait, there has at least been some good news about our future trade beyond the EU this week, as Liz Truss unveiled a new Anglo-Japanese trade agreement. Remainers told us that it took seven years to negotiate a trade deal, but the UK-Japan deal took a matter of weeks. Of course, the fact that we already had free-trade with Japan through the existing EU-Japan deal enabled a rapid deal. However, the fact that we also have free trade with the EU has not stopped them from stringing things out for four years so far.
Meanwhile, for all Macron’s protests, the people of France have been signalling their support for a post-Brexit British economy by other means. A report in Forbes magazine has found that the French were the biggest buyers of central London property in the last year (followed by Hong Kongers and Americans). As one of those quoted in the article put it, “there is smart money in Europe targeting London”. The facts defy the economic doom-mongers once again.
News
Graham Gudgin’s article on Scottish Independence (see below) was first published on the Conservative Home website, under the title ‘It must take a real majority of the right electorate to break up our Union’.
On the website this week
Blogs
The UK Pot calls itself jet black, while the Kettle goes Brussels-free, by Sir Peter Marshall
Sir Peter Marshall, a former diplomat and Deputy Secretary General to the Commonwealth, decries the tendency of the British establishment to argue the case for the Withdrawal Agreement. He views the establishment’s acceptance of the EU’s 2017 guidelines for negotiation with the UK as ‘a mindless capitulation’.
“Each time you open Old Father Barnier’s cupboard, another skeleton, shrouded in the folds of the Guidelines, falls out.”
Covid: Time for a change of track, by Brian Morris
The UK government’s Covid policy is to focus on areas of high infection rates rather than adopting a blanket approach. Communications consultant Brian Morris asks why it’s not focusing on the population group most at risk, with a shift in policy and messages.
“Living with the virus means that people of my age should, if they are capable, take some responsibility for their own safety and decide what risks they’re prepared to take to live more normally.”
If Scotland is to leave the UK, a majority of Scots needs to approve, by Graham Gudgin
Dr Graham Gudgin suggests that the rules of an independence referendum for Scotland are too lax and should be tightened. The possibility of breaking-up a successful 300-year old union is too important to be decided by a minority of Scotland’s population.
“UK governments have been remarkably insouciant about the break-up of one of the world’s most long-established and successful democracies.”
Key points this week
REACHing for Solutions
A recent report has issued warnings for the current government, predicting that the northern seats recently won by the Conservatives will be heavily hit by a no-deal Brexit (singling out the effects on chemical manufactures in particular), and thus likely to return to Labour at the next vote.
The report itself basically counts manufacturing jobs by constituency and plots them against the size of the local electoral majority, along with assuming that the industry will be particularly hard hit by tariffs and regulatory issues after the transition period ends. Aside from the reliance on dubious predictions of economic collapse, however, where such voters would go in the event of serious economic shocks is by no means certain – will Red Wall constituencies really be persuaded that Labour represents their interests on sovereignty and Brexit?
With regard to the case study of the chemicals industry picked out by the report, too, the issue is more complex. At present, the government’s replacement for the EU’s REACH system of chemical registration and authorisation (imaginatively titled ‘UK REACH’) is rolling over EU REACH’s currently authorised chemicals for UK-based companies and maintaining its aims – although the system’s expensiveness and inefficiency make it an area the UK can profitably use its newfound regulatory autonomy to design a more streamlined, less costly system than the EU’s.
This may well disadvantage German companies like BASF (quoted in the article), but it’s worth noting that this only mirrors the EU’s policy of requiring British firms to re-register chemicals they’ve already had approved by REACH. Given that EU countries export chemicals (and manufactures more generally) to the UK, and the EU’s overall trade surplus, the economic and electoral harms of such measures will be borne by Europe as well as Britain. In a familiar story, it is Brussels’ determination to force the UK into its regulatory orbit that will impose extra costs on individuals and businesses alike.
Too Good to be True?
Recent news coverage has often suggested the inevitability of the UK’s capitulation to EU demands, and corresponding doubted the government’s resolve. When David Frost refused to let Michel Barnier come for London for talks unless the EU concretely shifted its position (ie. actually negotiated), but nonetheless agreed to a telephone conversation, several news outlets optimistically interpreted this as a sign that talks were continuing.
Though talks have indeed (as of Thursday) resumed, Brexiteers should not take the statements that ‘everything is on the table’ from the EU as necessarily marking a real willingness to compromise. From European and Remain quarters, the assumption is that Britain will fold to EU demands, under a fig-leaf of compromise provided by the commission.
In part, this is because Remain-leaning sentiment continues to believe dubious economic estimates of the catastrophic effect of No Deal on the UK economy – leading to the assumption that no sane government could possibly embrace such an outcome. Moreover, the basic logic of the EU’s negotiating position encourages pro-EU outlets to talk up the likeliness of a British compromise.
In its negotiations the EU has rely on keeping all its members in line, though many have strong incentives to compromise with the UK given their large trade surpluses with Britain (particularly Germany). Calls for a softer line by the Commission will be less forthcoming if these states’ publics believe that Britain will fold, No Deal avoided and export sales preserved. Yet entreaties for a more sensible position from the Commission are growing from various industries, however, given precisely the dangers that Brussels’ intransigence poses.
While remaining wary, then, Brexiteers should approach predictions of imminent capitulation with a sanguine and by-now-familiar scepticism.
Key Points is compiled by a Cambridge PhD student.
We are also on Twitter, posting articles and retweeting the daily events that bring Brexit to the fore in the national news.
Discussion also continues over on Facebook.
How you can help
There is much about Brexit still to be decided. Our MPs listen to their constituents. Do continue to send them links to our articles, especially on matters relevant to your constituency – for example, in rural areas, articles on the threat to British agriculture. Alternatively, make an appointment to speak to them at their next surgery. Let them know what you want post-Brexit Britain to look like.
As Boris Johnson said in in his post-election address, it is also time for unity and reconciliation. Keep reading our posts and share links to our quality content to help others understand how leaving the EU will be good for the UK economy and for our own democratic governance. We aim to educate our critics to think differently and more positively about the long-term impact of Brexit.
You can follow us on Facebook and Twitter.
Yours Sincerely,
Newsletter Editor
An Oxbridge PhD Student
Dr Graham Gudgin
Economist, Centre for Business Research, Judge Business School University of Cambridge
Professor Robert Tombs
Emeritus Professor of French History, University of Cambridge
There is much about Brexit still to be decided. Our MPs listen to their constituents. Do continue to send them links to our articles, especially on matters relevant to your constituency – for example, in rural areas, articles on the threat to British agriculture. Alternatively, make an appointment to speak to them at their next surgery. Let them know what you want post-Brexit Britain to look like.
As Boris Johnson said in in his post-election address, it is also time for unity and reconciliation. Keep reading our posts and share links to our quality content to help others understand how leaving the EU will be good for the UK economy and for our own democratic governance. We aim to educate our critics to think differently and more positively about the long-term impact of Brexit.
You can follow us on Facebook and Twitter.
Yours Sincerely,
Newsletter Editor
An Oxbridge PhD Student
Dr Graham Gudgin
Economist, Centre for Business Research, Judge Business School University of Cambridge
Professor Robert Tombs
Emeritus Professor of French History, University of Cambridge
