Dear Subscribers,
On Tuesday evening shocking footage emerged of a Sudanese man attempting to behead a man in the middle of a road in Belfast. Rioting ensued with some houses and cars going up in flames – an expression of the anger people feel at the particular incident and the political establishment generally for ignoring the desire for reduced immigration. The Sudanese immigrant had, like many, claimed asylum from France in 2023, arriving first in Ireland and then getting a bus to Northern Ireland, avoiding any formal clearance.
Nowak’s murder and the attempted beheading have diverted attention away from movement within Westminster. The Defence Minister, John Healey, resigned from Cabinet: Starmer’s inability and the Treasury’s ‘unwillingness’ to have committed 3pc GDP for defence in 2030 were given as reasons. Shortly after, the Minister for the Armed Forces, Al Carns, also resigned from Cabinet and gave his reasons in a broader critique of both Starmer’s administration (inadequate Defence Investment Plan) and the state in general (‘the machinery of government itself has been left to decay’). Whether Healey and Carns have resigned to signal their willingness to play a role in a Burnham administration is not entirely clear. Regardless, Starmer has had no trouble finding their replacements.
And a future Burnham administration is an increasing likelihood. There has been, albeit dubious, polling from Makerfield that generally indicate a Burnham victory – owing to Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain splitting the Reform vote. Lowe has been plain about his personal hatred of Farage and refuses to see the tactical side to democratic voting (he says, ‘Democracy is about putting up what you believe in, and letting people vote for it.’ Well, yes, but…). This is a gift for both Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch; the former for his victory, the latter for her ability to posture above the in-fighting of the populist right.
Lastly, Rachel Reeves is planning to subsidise the employment of high-skilled international workers in British businesses. Businesses will be reimbursed £5,000 per foreign worker. It is a short-term measure that is evading the central domestic problems. At the start of the year youth unemployment (16-24) is 16.2pc, to say nothing of the million plus NEETs – a new ‘lost generation’, as Alan Milburn has said. And a report by Policy Exchange about the universities has restated the well-known struggle for graduate employment, with, for instance, only 57pc of students who graduated in 2024 in full-time work.
Book release – Brexit: The Facts Strike Back
Almost exactly ten years after the June 2016 referendum, Brexit and its consequences again dominate British politics. These ten years have seen the country divided and its political system tested almost to destruction. The public debates have often been based on assertions and arguments that are highly technical, especially those concerning economics and trade. Has Brexit made us poorer, and do we therefore need to return to the EU fold, as the present government and its supporters insist? Or is it the government’s own policies that are responsible for our economic handicaps?
There has been a ten-year campaign, still continuing, to persuade the British public that they made the wrong decision in 2016, and that they should have listened to those politicians, intellectuals and ‘experts’ who told them to vote Remain. Yet much of what we have been told, and are still being told, has no basis in evidence, and it is often provably wrong. Resolving the biggest political issue of our time needs facts, not propaganda, and this book gives them.
The contributors are members of Briefings for Britain, a volunteer group that has been supplying information to the public since 2017. Catherine McBride OBE is a professional trade economist, Wilf Glasby is a professional economist working in the private sector, Nick Busvine OBE is a former diplomat, co-editors Robert Tombs and Graham Gudgin CBE are respectively a historian and an economist at Cambridge.
You can purchase a copy on Amazon for £12.95.
Blog
UK’s growth slowdown not down to Brexit
Sunday Times Economics Editor, David Smith has claimed that slower UK growth over recent years is due to Brexit, with the UK having generally outperformed other European economies before 2016. But his analysis is misleading. The UK’s growth performance slowed sharply around the time of the global financial crisis, years before Brexit, and has been further hit since 2016 by soaring energy prices, the run-down of the oil and gas sector, and pandemic-driven labour market damage. Recent weak growth relative to the US, meanwhile, may be traced to very different fiscal policies and the US AI boom. Brexit plays a small, if any, part in this story.
Media
Losing control of the narrative by Sebastian Milbank for The Critic
Britain can’t trust Ireland to manage its borders by David Frost for The Telegraph
Key Points
British politics in a Lower key
Who is Rupert Lowe? No, put differently, what is Rupert Lowe? Since, Lowe’s significance is less in the man than in the phenomenon. The phenomenon is connected to his Twitter account, which is obviously not run by the 68-year-old, but younger, edgier conservatives who regard Farage’s Reform as soft. Many supporters are would-be Reform voters who personally dislike and mistrust Farage.
That Lowe is going to split the Reform vote we all know: Reform supporters are justly outraged, Burnham relieved, and Badenoch gladly quiescent. Since he was kicked out of Reform Lowe has existed for revenge. (On Lowe’s character, see this profile written by Gawain Towler.) Insofar that he has any positive beliefs, they amount to a Thatcherite regard for Ayn Rand and a boyish approval of Cromwell: Restore’s policies are essentially those of Reform, as well as some cribbing from the SDP.
Lowe is earnest, intolerant of meaningful dissent and enjoys hearing himself ranting – if pressed harder it is easy to imagine an unpleasant priggish side rising to the surface, which would discomfort his supporters. He does not do argument – hence his unbelief in splitting the vote. Where his younger male voters would regard Tice, Anderson and Farage as too Boomer, Lowe escapes this by posturing (online) as more extreme. In reality Lowe is a conservative whose politics are as radical (though far less articulate and comprehensive) as the Rt. Hon. Sir John Hayes MP.
Lowe’s significance, then, is not ideological (there are no deeper thoughts than his passing regard for Rand and Cromwell); it is instead party-political. Restore Britain is life support for the Conservative party. This is because the Reform party existed to replace – or emasculate – the Conservatives nationally: thus anything aiding Reform is also in aid of the Conservative party’s destruction: and vice versa.
It is above all revealing that Lowe, in an interview with The Telegraph, is full of praise for Badenoch who is ‘playing a difficult hand very well.’ Earlier this week Badenoch – in an unsubtle attempt by Michael Gove to boost his protégé’s appeal – was interviewed twice(!) by The Spectator. In one she praised Lowe for ‘wanting to cut spending in a way that Nigel Farage doesn’t. He turns up for work [unlike Farage].’ (A ludicrously ironic comment for anyone who has read any of the anecdotal reporting of Badenoch’s own work ethic.)
Lowe’s importance is thus twofold: in the short-term he might give Burnham a seat in the Commons; in the medium to longer term he might just save the Conservative party from Reform UK.
