The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC reports that Russia’s economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russia’s ability to sustain the war over the long term. ISW quoted a Washington Post report on 27 October that the Russian economy is “in danger of overheating,” noting that Russia’s excessively high military spending has fuelled economic growth in a way that forces Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to meet labour demands by remaining competitive alongside Russia’s high military salaries. Russian Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, warned back in July that Russia’s labour force and production capacity were “almost exhausted.”
More recently ISW reported that Russian regional authorities are significantly increasing the one-time signing bonuses for Russian contract service members in order to sustain Russia’s rate of force generation. Russia needs roughly 30,000 troops per month to replace losses. The money may not prove enough to tempt a lot of young or no longer so young to sign up and risk death or life-long disability. All the above provides evidence that Russia does not have an indefinite pool of manpower and must financially and socially reckon with the ever-growing costs of replenishing its frontline losses via various force-generation avenues.
Batches of North Koreans suddenly arriving in Russia are another vivid illustration of Putin’s difficulties. NATO – with or without Donald Trump, must keep Putin up to his thighs in Ukraine’s mud for another year, better two or even three. That gives NATO seven or eight years to rebuild our armed forces because Russia will need three or four years to rebuild its own armed forces.
Trump’s version of his peace plan is that he’ll stop all aid to Ukraine and tell Putin that unless he comes to the table for peace talks, he’ll give Zelensky everything he wants. Trump has a much stronger hand of cards. He should keep his nerve and go for the throat. Ukraine’s front line is far too long. Trump should insist that Russia pulls out of all the territory east of the River Dnieper as far as Zaporiza including Crimea. We don’t want Putin nicely set up to use that nuclear power station for blackmailing eastern Europe and the Near East, depending on the wind direction. Nor do we want Russia to have a handy port for blocking supplies of grain to Africa.
The Ukrainians say that not much of Joe Biden’s promised $61 billions of aid has actually reached them. America has a record of tiring and failure and NATO membership may be the next failure. In one sense Trump is a symptom of a tired nation rather than a pioneer. The trouble with isolation is that it led to Pearl Harbour. Today there’s a bigger risk. Next time might start with a nuclear strike.
The Koreans are coming, both North and South.
North Korea and Russia signed an agreement on October 30 to cooperate over digital communications — a development quite likely aimed at enhancing the Kremlin’s digital authoritarianism tools to increase domestic repression. Russia and North Korea signed an agreement on joint work between the Russian and North Korean prosecutor generals’ offices in July 2024, after which Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov stated that Russia wanted to learn about North Korean judicial practice, particularly in the spheres of communication and information technology. At the time ISW assessed that the North Korean-Russian judicial agreement was likely part of Kremlin efforts to increase Russia’s arsenal of domestic control methods and consolidate control over the Russian information space, including via messaging platforms and virtual private network (VPN) services. The details of the 30 October digital communications agreement are unclear, but it is likely similarly aimed at increasing Russia’s tools for repression within the domestic information space.
The South Koreans calculate that some 12,000 North Korean troops have crossed into Russia for training in Far Eastern Russia. They were accompanied by 500 officers including 3 generals. Forces News (British) reports that satellite imagery and social media both show North Korean troops being issued with Russian uniforms. According to President Zelensky, 11,000 already have arrived in Kursk Oblast. Many are very young, including teenagers. The Russians appear to be placing batches of North Koreans in Russian units rather than deploying them as formed combat units. One new Russian prisoner of war told the Ukrainians that the North Koreans had opened fire on his unit. He concluded it was safer to surrender.
South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported on 22 October that a government source said South Korea was considering sending South Korean military personnel, likely from intelligence units, to Ukraine to monitor North Korean forces’ tactics and combat capabilities and to question captured North Koreans. On the 29 October Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that he had discussed enhanced intelligence cooperation with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.
One does question whether getting into bed with Kim Jong-un was as clever as Putin seems to believe. North Korea may have over a million wearing uniforms but their actual experience is limited, mostly to internal security or guard duty along the DMZ. Fighting for Putin’s vanity along the Ukraine front may prove a bit of a shock.
Moreover, South Korea may decide to jack up their global league industrial powerhouse and keep Ukraine supplied with medium artillery rounds, self-propelled guns, tanks and other equipment. The Ukrainians are taking out Russia’s air defences bit by bit. The South Koreans might have some tactical missiles and less qualms than Biden and Trump about missile strikes in the Russian rear areas. If you’re a South Korean, the more North Korean troops on the other side of Asia in Eastern Europe, the better.
