Post Segments
Trump’s Stumble Diplomacy.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, D.C., reports that both Ukrainian and German officials conclude that Putin used the Anchorage Conference to play for time while Russia prepares for a major offensive this autumn. My impression is that Putin no longer regards Trump as a danger to his own ambitions, as he manages to continue the war while giving nothing in return. Putin used meeting Trump on American soil to enhance his own image prior to the BRIC summit in Beijing. Inviting Trump to Moscow would increase Putin’s status at home.
This display of confidence includes a large helping of tactical bluffing – such as Medvedev’s recent threats aimed at Finland. The actual target for a frontier violation was Poland, and the invaders were drones. Since then, Russian MiG-19 fighters have violated Estonia’s airspace over the Baltic. Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, recently made it abundantly clear that Russia will only accept Ukrainian capitulation. Trump needs only to impose much tighter sanctions, and Russia’s economy would crumple. But as he explained at Chequers, America won’t do that until Europe stops buying Russian oil and gas. For once, he has a point.
During a Zoom conversation arranged by the FCOD Association ( retired members of HM Diplomatic Service), Fiona Hill, who held senior national security posts in Trump’s first Administration, explained the thinking behind the recent British defence review. She had been one of the three reviewers led by Lord George Robertson, former Defence Secretary and later Secretary General of NATO. The third member was General Sir Richard Barrons.
Fiona Hill explained how the British strategic defence review team had consulted with numerous officials and military officers from other NATO countries. Some NATO officers were attached to the review team. Since these conversations, most of the Americans they talked to in Washington and other places have been expelled from their posts. This is bad news for British defence interests because a whole layer of human knowledge and experience on matters British has been stripped away, replaced by Trump’s fan club working from near enough complete ignorance. The same fate has befallen other experts, including military officers and intelligence officers with deep knowledge and experience in dealing with various topics and parts of the world. Consequently, after several months of government by Trump and his Cabinet, the world has become a much more dangerous place. Assurances that the USA has plenty of aircraft carriers and we’d like the British to provide more land forces might have sounded reasonable last year; today, they ring utterly hollow.
NATO stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, not the East, West or South Atlantic when it suits Donald Trump. Fiona Hill made no secret that a question mark lay over American help for Europe in a crisis. They had looked at alternatives to a NATO led by America, NATO without America, some form of European replacement, or a new global alliance with the remaining four eyes – Australia, Canada, New Zealand and UK – plus Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, the Gulf States, possibly India, South Africa and other Commonwealth members, Brazil and others but without the USA. I’m all in favour of this latter formula. Indeed, so long as Trump is President, wise leaders will assume that we Brits are on our own, though with a very sound global alternative option – as are the countries listed above, plus the Taiwanese.
Putin is an addicted Gambler
As well as repeated large air attacks on Ukraine, the Kremlin launched a drone flock on Poland and supersonic fighters against Estonia – no thanks to Putin, this did not start World War Three, although it could have done. Rather, it was raising two bluffing KGB fingers at NATO by showing that Russia’s drones could penetrate NATO airspace any time the Kremlin wished. Some drones were flying towards a large logistics base that forwards NATO supplies to Ukraine. This incursion was followed by yet another drone straying across Romania. That one was probably accidental, but NATO should be grateful for the lesson and warning. Scrambling supersonic fighters against low-flying drones is a horrendous waste of fuel – and effort. Automatic rifles make a lot more sense. I suspect the drama was timed to run just before extensive military exercises with Belarus next door, both alongside a media campaign of coordinated posturing about military strength on the Ukraine battlefields in order to shape Western thinking and falsely portray a Russian victory as inevitable.
Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov delivered a major speech at the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) Collegium on 29 August, providing an update on the ten priority directions for the Russian MoD. Belousov also discussed Russian battlefield progress in Ukraine and exaggerated Russian gains in recent weeks. (The price wasn’t mentioned, Ukrainian General Staff assess that Russian forces suffered an average of 938 personnel casualties per day during August 2025.) Belousov did claim that 97 percent of service members return to the frontlines “after being wounded,” which is consistent with reports that the Russian military command routinely sends injured Russian personnel on attritional, infantry-led assaults.
The Russian MoD has shifted its priorities to produce light vehicles over heavy armoured vehicles, reflecting Russian battlefield tactics since the winter of 2024–2025. Belousov claimed that the Russian MoD procured and delivered 22,725 motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and buggies to the frontlines and planned to deliver an additional 12,186 light vehicles to Russian forces along the frontlines by the end of August. ISW previously observed reports from unspecified Russian military sources claiming that Russia purchased over 40,000 Chinese-made motorcycles in 2024 and intends to purchase up to 200,000 motorcycles and 60,000 other light vehicles during 2025. Russian forces are increasingly fielding light vehicles, including motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and buggies, in lieu of heavy armoured vehicles such as tanks, due to their agility and relatively low cost compared to armoured vehicles. Ukrainian drone operations are a significant threat to the latter equipment. Russian forces have not added adequate protection for armoured vehicles and tanks against Ukrainian drone strikes. Also, Russia faces a future with declining tank and armoured vehicle stockpiles
Russian Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, claimed on 30 August that Russian forces have seized 3,500 square kilometres of territory and 149 settlements since March 2025. The army of Russian milbloggers heavily criticised Gerasimov. They also rejected his claim that Russian forces have seized half of Kupyansk. The milbloggers characterised Gerasimov’s figures as a “very big exaggeration” and asked which elements of the Russian military command structure are feeding false reports to the Russian high command? ISW has seen evidence that Russian forces gained roughly 2,346 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory and seized 130 settlements between 1 March and 30 August this year.
The Kremlin is trying to convince NATO members that Russia will inevitably achieve its war goals on the battlefield. Therefore, Ukraine should concede to Russian demands, and the West should cease its support of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence reports warn that the Russian military command is regrouping and reinforcing its troops in western Donetsk Oblast, likely ahead of a major offensive.
Why do I say all this?
After Trump and Vance ambushed Zelensky in the Oval Office and tried to belittle him on global TV, it became obvious that Europe must prepare to defend itself. Zelensky and his fellow Ukrainians have been fighting our battle for three years.
