In his book on the US occupation of Iraq after the Gulf War, Imperial Life in the Emerald City, Rajiv Chandrasekaran tells the story of John Agresto, an American academic whose task was to rebuild the country’s looted universities. Agresto landed in Iraq with ‘an abundance of optimism’ but found he had neither adequate funds nor the security he needed. A supporter of the war, he told the writer: ‘I’m a neoconservative who’s been mugged by reality’.
After their election catastrophe, Tory liberal centrists need to recognise they’ve been mugged by reality: the reality that liberal policies on immigration have been shown not to work, have in recent years produced increasing numbers of immigrants and have been rejected by a majority of UK citizens.
Immigration was the dominant issue that propelled the Nigel Farage fan club Reform UK to win 4 million votes. They may have won even more votes if people had not, above all, wanted the Tories out and voted tactically for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
It’s easy to see why liberals are uncomfortable with confronting the growing market of one-way small boat trips leaving the French coast. Across Europe and in the UK right-wing and far-right parties have successfully colonised the issue of immigration. In Britain ultra-liberals have shrunk from admitting we might have a problem with the massive numbers of migrants entering our country.
For them, to do so would be to enter a forbidden city, where populist leaders demonise immigrants and blame them for the ills of Western societies. A city where gangs of racists, homophobes and misogynists roam freely.
Right-wing parties in power or close to it in Europe are, in some cases, tainted by such well-founded perceptions. When Nigel Farage was asked on TV ‘What is it about you and your party that attracts racists and extremists?’ many in the studio audience applauded. Liberals, including Liberal Democrats, back away from any suggestion that immigration to the UK should be dramatically reduced.
No surprise then, that on a pre-election Panorama debate, Laya Michelle Moran, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and International Development, looked shocked when asked whether she would put a number on how many immigrants the UK should admit. The very idea. Her response was to say in effect we should join the migrant quota system proposed by the EU to parcel the numbers among member states
Only the EU, it seems, can solve this problem, a conclusion that voters across Europe appear not to agree with as they vote for Eurosceptic right-wing and far-right politicians. But theirs is a view not shared, it seems, by our new prime minister.
Both before and during the election there were claims Sir Keir would seek to join the EU’s quota scheme for sharing immigrants among its members. This triggered ferocious attacks from the Tories claiming it could lead to Britain having to accept up to 120,000 migrants from across Europe.
Not true, said Labour, as we cannot be part of the EU’s new asylum-sharing scheme since the UK is not a member state. Instead, last year Sir Keir floated the idea of a bespoke deal on sharing immigrants with the EU.
But Tory attacks seem to have had some effect. Labour is now saying any such agreement would be very limited, with numbers capped and an arrangement for children to join their families in the UK. Perhaps a vision of TV coverage of a long queue of immigrants shipped from EU countries, disembarking at Dover, concentrated minds. And as EU countries consider offshoring asylum seekers to third countries, we are reminded Labour has not ruled this policy out.
Labour’s search for a credible immigration policy suggests the Prime Minister shares some of the scepticism on whether Labour’s much touted policy of smashing the smuggling gangs and arresting gang bosses would really do the trick. For criminal entrepreneurs, smuggling asylum seekers must be one of the most lucrative businesses on the planet, second only to the drug trade. Arrest one smuggler or drug baron and another will take their place.
When profits are sky high, promises to arrest and punish carry little deterrence. Nor do Labour’s policies do anything to weaken the pull factors that drive asylum seekers to risk their lives in overcrowded small boats.
Scepticism about Labour’s immigration policy is easy to source. ‘Shadow ministers have been almost gleeful about the 13,000-plus migrants that have come across the Channel so far this year. ‘Tory failure’ but the boats aren’t going to stop’. That wasn’t a Telegraph columnist speaking, but Andrew Marr, warning Labour in the New Statesman just before the election. He continued: ‘The country is taking a lot on trust and without much detail’.
On the other side of town, scepticism about Labour’s plans runs rampant. The editorial in the latest Spectator cruelly suggests the salary of between £140,00 and £200,00 offered for the head of the newly created Border Security Command was for someone ‘to be the fall guy, someone willing to take the blame for a policy that is certain to fail’.
Failure might be the least problem for Reform UK’s immigration policy. The party advocates a ‘net-zero’ policy with one immigrant accepted for every Brit leaving the UK. Those setting out in small boats would be returned to the French coast. When a member of a TV studio audience pointed out that the French might not welcome the return of small boat people, Farage suggested British marines might be needed. It seems the next time we fight on the beaches of Normandy it could be against the French.
All the same, tough talk on immigration worked for Farage and will continue to work. It’s a long way back for the Conservatives and they may not have as much time as they think if Reform gains credibility as opposition to Labour. A realistic and nuanced policy outline for reducing immigration from Tory leadership hopefuls would be timely.
Although it’s small consolation to the Tories, the General Election delivered the promise of Brexit. Taking back control made the Conservatives accountable. No longer could complaints about high levels of immigration be met with a gallic shrug and blamed on the EU. Control needed to be actioned.
For reasons that seemed good to the Treasury, it wasn’t. Labour now faces the same problems. Expect them to struggle.
Brian Morris is a media consultant and former current affairs TV producer.
