The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington DC reminds that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks. Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director, Sergei Naryshkin, claimed on 26 November that while Russia is open to negotiations, Russia “categorically rejects” any “freezing” of the current frontline or the creation of a demilitarized zone. Naryshkin alleged that the “elimination” of the reasons that “caused” Russia to launch its full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the only way to ensure peace — that’s newspeak for Russia still demands Ukraine’s full capitulation.
The Kremlin has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine relinquish areas of the four Ukrainian oblasts that the Kremlin has illegally annexed even though Russian forces do not currently fully occupy them. ISW also forecast that the Russian military command is likely planning how to advance into the most south eastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — significantly it’s not one of the four illegally annexed oblasts — in support of Russia’s longstanding objective to seize all of Donetsk Oblast.
On the Ground
Britain’s Defence Secretary, John Healey, told the Daily Telegraph on 9 November that our defence intelligence estimates Russian casualties “reached a new high” in October 2024 and that Russian forces suffered an average daily casualty rate of 1,345 troops per day or about 41,980 casualties during that month. The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), citing data from the Ukrainian General Staff, previously reported that Russian forces suffered a record-high average daily casualty rate of 1,271 troops per day or about 38,130 casualties in September 2024. Russian forces have thus suffered an estimated 80,110 casualties over those two months – roughly 20,000 more casualties than US forces suffered during almost 20 years of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. US forces suffered 58,000 killed in action in Vietnam and 158,000 wounded over nearly 20 years of intense warfare.
ISW observe that Western media reports comparing recent Russian gains to those at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion do not point out the gradual and tactical nature of Russia’s recent advances. ISW also observe the Russian military’s rate of advance since this autumn has notably increased recently compared to its rate of advance during 2023 and the rest of 2024. Russian forces have gained 574 square kilometres since November 1, 2024 — an average rate of 22 square kilometres per day. This is remarkably less than the 1,265 square kilometres per day that ISW assesses Russian forces were gaining in March 2022.
On the 26 November Reuters reported that Russian forces “control” over 80 percent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. ISW assesses that while Russian forces occupy roughly 99 percent of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces only occupy about 66 percent of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have occupied almost the entirety of Luhansk Oblast since autumn 2022 but have occupied significantly less territory in Donetsk Oblast throughout the war.
Russian forces would need to seize over 8,000 square kilometres of territory to achieve the Kremlin’s self-defined objective of seizing the whole of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces would seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast in roughly one year should Russian forces continue their recent relatively quicker rate of advance — which is not a given. Russian forces have been bypassing Ukrainian strong points. Ukraine still has several well-defended cities in Donetsk Oblast, places that Russian forces cannot seize as rapidly as they have the rural fields near Pokrovsk. Russian forces have not been able to restore manoeuvre to the battlefield. Ukraine carried out the most recent deep penetration into enemy positions. Russia hasn’t done so since the initial months of their full-scale invasion. Russian forces have instead been exploiting identified vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defences to make gradual advances.
What price in lives and limbs?
My back of an envelope calculation comes out at just over 912,000 killed and wounded over 363 days at their current rate of advance. Let’s say that if the West maintains robust support for Ukraine the latter would wipe out Russian and other forces almost the size of North Korea’s Army. It would pay South Korea to provide military aid to Ukraine! Putin knows this. There’s no rocket science in why he so anxious for Donald Trump to pull the military aid rug from under the Ukrainians. (Putin may have misread Donald, you really do never know.) The rest of us should ignore Putin’s useful idiots in the Western media. Stick with Ukraine. They’re defending us, the NATO alliance. And the longer we support them, the weaker become Putin and his fellow gangsters. Frankly, Russia’s economy is on the brink. Look at the velocity of the tumbling rouble. Putin hides a lot of things but he can’t hide empty shelves instead of butter in the shops.
