There was an interesting article in last week’s Sunday Times. Although it was a fairly standard pro-Rejoiner piece written by the political editor, Caroline Wheeler, it repays a second glance. On line it is even better as it contains a most enlightening reactive map, of which more in a moment.
The article centred on presenting a report carried out for the wealthy pro-EU lobby group Best for Britain by a company called Frontier Economics, a consultancy chaired by Dame Sharon White. She was, readers may recall, a former senior civil servant in the Treasury (a notoriously anti-Brexit department) and subsequently the not outstandingly successful former chair of John Lewis, who stepped down after the briefest of tenures (for which, however, she received an annual salary of £990,000).
I do not intend to discuss the economics of the report, which rather predictably asserts that alignment with the EU would give economic benefits, though small ones. All these reports have to try to perform the ingenious trick of showing that aligning more closely with the EU would somehow make us more economically successful than its actual members. Regular readers of BfB will know the various ways in which this trick is performed.
What interested me far more was the result of an accompanying opinion survey carried out for Best for Britain (they must still have quite a lot of money from somewhere!) by YouGov. Caroline Wheeler presented the results of the poll like this:
… in every seat in Great Britain bar Clacton, the most popular option was for the UK to improve trade access with the EU even if it required the UK to follow some specific rules, standards and regulations. In Farage’s seat, Clacton, the results were extremely close, with 42 per cent opposing and 39 per cent supporting.
I do not claim expertise in polling techniques, but even to my amateur eye, the spin seemed rather transparent. The questions asked had the effect of splitting the number who did not want realignment with the EU into two groups, those who wanted no change (19 percent), and those who actually wanted fewer links with the EU (22 percent). The remaining 18 percent were understandably unsure. By this simple method, the minority in favour of closer alignment (41 percent) could be presented as ‘the most popular option’. Had the poll simply asked ‘Are you in favour of closer ties with the EU?’ the result of this sample would have been 41 percent each.
I wonder what the result would be if an enterprising pollster asked some of the following questions:
- Would you be in favour of adopting EU rules that lessened our economic growth?
- Would you favour giving up British fishing rights to get closer to the EU?
- Would you favour paying a large budget contribution to Brussels?
- Would you want EU courts to be given control over British laws?
- Would you be in favour of free movement in return for closer alignment with the EU?
- Would you be in favour of closer alignment with the EU if it obstructed our trade with the rest of the world?
If Briefings for Britain had the same funding as Best for Britain, which has in the past derived generous donations from foreign business corporations (the BBC has reported that it received £800,000 from George Soros alone) we might well commission YouGov to ask some of these questions ourselves. But we think we can already guess the answers.
Be that as it may, even more interesting than the bare results was the reactive map that accompanied them, which I strongly recommend if you can get access on line. This showed a startling picture, which must have gravely disappointed Best for Britain, though fortunately for them the Sunday Times did not point this out.
Our electoral system of course works by parliamentary constituencies, not by national polls. The map gives the percentages opposing or favouring realignment with the EU for every constituency in the country. It shows that only Scotland forms a block of support for closer ties with the EU, especially northern Scotland (areas held presently by the Lib Dems), parts of central Scotland (held by Labour) and to a lesser extent areas held by the SNP. Of course, only close alignment with the EU gives any hope at all to Scottish nationalists. Yet even in these relatively pro-EU areas, only 50-51 percent favour closer EU ties.
If we look at England and Wales, finding constituencies where there is a pro-EU majority takes some persistence. Cambridge, as I suspected, seems to be the Rejoiner capital, with 55 percent favouring closer ties with Brussels, though the constituencies immediately surrounding Cambridge are only in the 40s, while the rest of East Anglia mostly shows only between 30 and 40 percent favouring closer ties. This is broadly the position right across England, from Carlisle (36.8 percent) to the Isle of Wight (37.2 percent). Similarly in Wales from Pembrokeshire (36.8 percent) to Wrexham (37.7 percent). In most of central England, the percentage eager for closer ties with Brussels is in the low 30s.
Who could fail to notice that the proportion of people in favour of realignment with the EU today is far lower than the proportion who voted ‘Remain’ in 2016 – despite years of anti-Brexit propaganda? Well, the Sunday Times failed to notice, for one. I don’t suppose Best for Britain is very keen to point it out.
So where is this tidal wave of support for rejoining or even realigning with the EU, which pro-EU lobbies and the pro-EU media love telling us about? If even Best for Britain can’t find it, then a safe conclusion is that it does not exist. Politicians would be wise to take note.
