Dear Subscribers,
War has broken out between Israel and Iran, with Israel carrying out widespread strikes against Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure and Iran responding by firing drones and ballistic missiles towards civilian centres. The role of the US is unclear. There was supposed to be a further round of talks between Iranian and US officials this weekend, but the response of the Trump administration to Israel’s strikes suggests that they were expected and approved, if not actively encouraged.
The French government is reportedly leading attempts to exclude British arms manufacturers from the EU’s new defence procurement fund. It makes pragmatic sense to include British manufacturers: they are a reliable source of high-quality military equipment. The only arguments against including UK firms are either ideological (using defence procurement as a tool for further EU economic integration) or vindictive (excluding UK firms as a ‘punishment’ for Brexit).
False friend
The Foreign Secretary unveiled a deal with Spain over Gibraltar this week. Under the deal travellers arriving into Gibraltar airport will be subject to checks by Spanish border officials as well as British ones, while checks on people and goods crossing the border between Gibraltar and the Spanish mainland will be removed. Britain retains total autonomy in relation to military and naval bases in the region. The deal has not been well-received in Spain.
The Prime Minister is in Canada for the G7 and has expressed an intention to reduce trade barriers between the UK and Canada. There is speculation that Starmer’s aim is to reopen trade talks which broke down in 2024, after which Canada imposed increased tariffs on UK agricultural products.
A deal on the horizon?
Media
Dominic Cummings on ‘what must be done’
Daniel Hannan on Britain’s descent into the Third World
Blog
Strategic Defence Review 2025 by Adrian Hill
Former soldier and diplomat Adrian Hill approvingly assesses last week’s Defence Review but argues for speed in implementing it.
It’s a pity that President Macron is so keen to score commercial points off Britain – his fish leverage only worked because its victim – other than our fishing industry – was an aging civil servant and EU lover who lacked the self-confidence to cancel the whole London charade. Were there better leaders of both Britain and France, we could add Italy and deploy four CSGs on this side of the Atlantic. Two more from Britain would give Eastern Atlantic NATO more firepower than the US Navy has in our waters today. But the Prime Minister would need to stop dithering and buy our full order F 35 jump-jets to gain the real value of the nation’s investment in two carriers, let alone a couple more. Our carriers need their full complement of F 35s.
Key Points
Though Israel’s escalation of hostilities with Iran may, from an Israeli perspective, be a natural continuation of the campaign that started with the war against Hamas in response to the October 7th attacks, it is better from a British perspective to keep the war in Gaza and the war with Iran quite separate. It is tempting to divide opinion into a ‘pro-Israel’ and an ‘anti-Israel’ camp, but this is overly simplistic. It is quite possible to support the destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme while taking a less favourable view of ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza.
After October 7th, Israel’s aim was to dismantle the so-called ‘axis of resistance’, led and sponsored by Iran but consisting in addition of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen, whose long-term ambition has always appeared to be the destruction of the Israeli state. Having incapacitated Hamas and Hezbollah, attacks on Iran and its nuclear research facilities are the logical conclusion of an attempt by Israel to secure itself against rivals in the region intent on conflict.
From a British perspective, Israel’s conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah is strategically inconsequential, them being minor actors in the region. Iran, however, is a different story, largely for two reasons. First, developing nuclear capabilities would upset the balance of power in the MIddle East and increase the risk of a nuclear war. Second, Iran has effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and a quarter of its crude oil passes, often on its way to Europe.
Britain should therefore naturally be inclined to support Israeli operations against Iran since it weakens a state hostile to Britain which has considerable power to disrupt global supplies of oil and natural gas on which Britain relies. Insofar as it delays or puts a stop to Iran’s development of a nuclear bomb, it also makes the world a safer place. All this can be kept quite separate from any ongoing campaign in Gaza or Lebanon. Unfortunately. strong anti-Israel voices in the UK prefer to run the issues together, exploiting troubling images and stories from Gaza in attempt to turn public opinion in favour of an Islamic theocracy staunchly opposed to the West.
