Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood has claimed that if the UK rejoined the EU single market, this would...
Author - Harry Western
Time to choose – real divergence or continued shadow EU alignment
The British government has failed to embark on significant divergence from EU policies since the UK...
Busting the myths about post-Brexit UK trade
Narratives pushed by Remainers and parts of the media suggest that UK exports have slumped over the...
UK Brexit policy – a disappointing scorecard
UK-EU trade has held up better than most observers expected, but after more than a year UK...
The Northern Ireland Protocol – bad today, far worse tomorrow
The Northern Ireland Protocol is already imposing significant costs on the economy of Northern...
The dam is breaking – another study heavily criticises the...
A new study of the Treasury’s modelling of Brexit outcomes is extremely critical of the HMT...
Brexiteers beware – David Frost’s departure is disastrous
Lord Frost was not only an effective negotiator but also one of the few UK ministers to fully grasp...
Ignore the blarney – the NI protocol is very damaging for the...
In this second of two articles reviewing the potential impact of the Irish Protocol on the Northern...
What Impact will the Protocol have on the Northern Ireland...
This is the first of two articles reviewing the potential impact of the Irish Protocol on the...
UK exports after nine months of 2021: what do we know?
Interpreting UK export data in 2021 is complicated by statistical distortions and the lingering...
Suspending the TCA – what’s not to like?
Recent reports suggest that the EU is preparing a “package”of retaliatory measures under the Trade...
The OBR again makes unsupportable claims about Brexit
The OBR has again claimed that Brexit will have a big long-term negative impact on GDP. These...
What’s happening to UK-Irish trade – revisited
Tracking developments in British-Irish trade continues to be difficult due to re-routing of trade...
The EU’s new proposals on the Northern Ireland Protocol –...
Some hard negotiating and real movement from the Commission is required if the EU’s proposals to...
UK food exports are proving remarkably resilient
Remainers continue to claim that UK food exports are performing disastrously. But their claims rely...
Five years on – the things Remainers got wrong about Brexit
During the five years since the Brexit referendum, the dire warnings of Remainers have proven wrong...
UK-EU trade in May: Another body blow for ‘Project Fear’
UK exports to the EU continued to recover strongly in May and are now above pre-pandemic levels...
No, UK services exports have not been hamstrung by Brexit
Recent claims that UK services exports have been badly hit by Brexit are not backed up by the data...
What’s happening to trade between the UK and Ireland?
The UK’s exit from the EU single market and customs union has had a major impact on trade flows...
Australian trade deal – briefing note
Objections recently raised to liberalising agricultural trade with Australia are based on emotive...
Northern Ireland Protocol – What Should be done?
In the second of BfB advisory notes to NI Unionists, Harry Western outlines why the Northern...
Brexiteers beware yet again – ‘BRINO’ is back
Brexit in name only, or ‘BRINO’ is back. Four months after leaving the EU customs union and single...
UK-EU trade rebounds in February. An update
Last month we argued that the slump in UK-EU trade in January reflected a variety of factors, many...
UK-EU trade rebounds in February, what now for ‘Project Fear’?
Excerpt: Last month we argued that the slump in UK-EU trade in January reflected a variety of...
How worried should we be about the UK’s January trade slump?
UK trade with the EU slumped in January. Various factors appear to have contributed to this...
EU disarray on vaccines. How many lives are being lost?
It is now clear that vaccinations are saving lives in the Covid pandemic. The faster the rollout of...
The Northern Ireland protocol must be radically altered
The Northern Ireland Protocol makes no economic sense. Its key rationale is to prevent trade...
Ten things we’ve learned about the UK-EU trade deal
has now been operating for a month. Among other things we now know from the first month of the UK...
The UK-EU trade deal – an ‘experimental peace’
As we expected, political pressures have led the UK to make a deal with the EU and reject leaving...
For the last time – an EU trade deal isn’t worth it for...
The UK should walk away from trade talks with the EU, as the deal being discussed is not worth...
A bad deal with the EU is likely, but it won’t last
Short-term political pressures, plus a lack of long-term strategic economic thinking, make it...
The UK Economic Establishment Continues to Peddle Myths About...
Recently, the Bank of England and the OBR have again claimed there will be a big negative impact of...
What a bad EU deal would look like – a primer for Brexiteers
The EU is intent on foisting a lopsided deal on the UK that would leave large swathes of the UK...
Let’s say it again – EU deal not worth it for the UK
Economist Harry Western updates his July article in which he argued that the UK should not accept a...
The government’s new coronavirus restrictions risk catastrophic...
The UK government’s decision to reimpose coronavirus restrictions risks causing catastrophic...
The Treasury’s tax rise plans make no sense
Economist Harry Western argues that the UK is not ‘on the edge’, it would take a dramatic...
Britain should not settle for ‘60%’ of its negotiating...
According to news reports, chief UK negotiator David Frost has told MPs that the UK may achieve...
Why do so many economists get Brexit wrong?
The economics profession continues to try to prove that Brexit has already had negative...
Brexiteers be alert again – Whitehall still trying to scupper a...
Harry Western worries that a series of appointments and leaked pronouncements from the Department...
Brexiteers be alert for a ‘Chequers Mk.2’ deal
The Government may be mulling a Chequers mark-2 deal. Brexiteers need to remain alert
Why ‘no deal’ is a good deal for the UK fishing industry
The UK fishing industry is hugely disadvantaged by the current allocation of catches in the UK’s...
The EU isn’t interested in free trade with the UK, just...
The EU’s actions over the last two weeks show that it is not aiming at a free trade agreement with...
On the terms being offered, EU deal is not worth it.
Economist Harry Western argues that the government must resist the extreme demands of EU trade...
Prospects for an acceptable trade deal worse than most people...
Economist Harry Western explains what the UK wants from a free trade deal by next December and the...
Don’t be fooled: a ‘bare bones’ free trade deal is exactly what...
The EU says that only a ‘bare-bones’ is possible by the end of 2020. Harry Western argues that is...
Johnson’s deal –a precarious bridge to economic freedom
The renegotiated deal Boris Johnson has agreed with the EU and recently presented to parliament is...
Boris Johnson’s first week – an assessment
It is too early to pre-judge the new government. Some early indications are positive, at least...
Six ways we can be sure Boris is serious
Harry Western argues that despite the promises of Boris Johnson Brexit supporters should avoid...
A new prime minister must end the Treasury’s anti-Brexit...
The UK Conservative Party has now begun a search for a new leader, and thus a new British Prime...
The IMF’s latest no-deal warnings are sloppy and overblown
The International Monetary Fund has produced another analysis suggesting that a no-deal Brexit...