Last month we argued that the slump in UK-EU trade in January reflected a variety of factors, many...
Author - Harry Western
UK-EU trade rebounds in February, what now for ‘Project Fear’?
Excerpt: Last month we argued that the slump in UK-EU trade in January reflected a variety of...
How worried should we be about the UK’s January trade slump?
UK trade with the EU slumped in January. Various factors appear to have contributed to this...
EU disarray on vaccines. How many lives are being lost?
It is now clear that vaccinations are saving lives in the Covid pandemic. The faster the rollout of...
The Northern Ireland protocol must be radically altered
The Northern Ireland Protocol makes no economic sense. Its key rationale is to prevent trade...
Ten things we’ve learned about the UK-EU trade deal
has now been operating for a month. Among other things we now know from the first month of the UK...
The UK-EU trade deal – an ‘experimental peace’
As we expected, political pressures have led the UK to make a deal with the EU and reject leaving...
For the last time – an EU trade deal isn’t worth it for...
The UK should walk away from trade talks with the EU, as the deal being discussed is not worth...
A bad deal with the EU is likely, but it won’t last
Short-term political pressures, plus a lack of long-term strategic economic thinking, make it...
The UK Economic Establishment Continues to Peddle Myths About...
Recently, the Bank of England and the OBR have again claimed there will be a big negative impact of...
What a bad EU deal would look like – a primer for Brexiteers
The EU is intent on foisting a lopsided deal on the UK that would leave large swathes of the UK...
Let’s say it again – EU deal not worth it for the UK
Economist Harry Western updates his July article in which he argued that the UK should not accept a...
The government’s new coronavirus restrictions risk catastrophic...
The UK government’s decision to reimpose coronavirus restrictions risks causing catastrophic...
The Treasury’s tax rise plans make no sense
Economist Harry Western argues that the UK is not ‘on the edge’, it would take a dramatic...
Britain should not settle for ‘60%’ of its negotiating...
According to news reports, chief UK negotiator David Frost has told MPs that the UK may achieve...
Why do so many economists get Brexit wrong?
The economics profession continues to try to prove that Brexit has already had negative...
Brexiteers be alert again – Whitehall still trying to scupper a...
Harry Western worries that a series of appointments and leaked pronouncements from the Department...
Brexiteers be alert for a ‘Chequers Mk.2’ deal
The Government may be mulling a Chequers mark-2 deal. Brexiteers need to remain alert
Why ‘no deal’ is a good deal for the UK fishing industry
The UK fishing industry is hugely disadvantaged by the current allocation of catches in the UK’s...
The EU isn’t interested in free trade with the UK, just...
The EU’s actions over the last two weeks show that it is not aiming at a free trade agreement with...
On the terms being offered, EU deal is not worth it.
Economist Harry Western argues that the government must resist the extreme demands of EU trade...
Prospects for an acceptable trade deal worse than most people...
Economist Harry Western explains what the UK wants from a free trade deal by next December and the...
Don’t be fooled: a ‘bare bones’ free trade deal is exactly what...
The EU says that only a ‘bare-bones’ is possible by the end of 2020. Harry Western argues that is...
Johnson’s deal –a precarious bridge to economic freedom
The renegotiated deal Boris Johnson has agreed with the EU and recently presented to parliament is...
Boris Johnson’s first week – an assessment
It is too early to pre-judge the new government. Some early indications are positive, at least...
Six ways we can be sure Boris is serious
Harry Western argues that despite the promises of Boris Johnson Brexit supporters should avoid...
A new prime minister must end the Treasury’s anti-Brexit...
The UK Conservative Party has now begun a search for a new leader, and thus a new British Prime...
The IMF’s latest no-deal warnings are sloppy and overblown
The International Monetary Fund has produced another analysis suggesting that a no-deal Brexit...
The EU is terrified of a WTO Brexit – the UK should seize its...
Harry Western argues that a smart UK government would take advantage of the current vulnerability...
Why a Customs Union Remains a Terrible Idea
We are publishing a refreshed and updated version of this article which first appeared on this site...
May’s deal is not Brexit, and neither is ‘Common market 2.0’ –...
The government is claiming that, if its Withdrawal Agreement is rejected, parliament will take over...
The UK is ready for a WTO Brexit
The widely-held view that the UK is ‘not ready’ to leave the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO)...
The EU is a Major Drag on the UK economy
Harry Western shows that the EU’s anaemic economic growth has hobbled UK trade and manufacturing...
How Awful Are The Backstop Trade Proposals?
Suggestions that the ‘backstop’ trade arrangements in the EU withdrawal agreement are somehow...
May’s customs union con-tricks
In denial of its public pronouncements, the government appears intent on forcing the UK into a...
Fourteen Reasons Why a UK-EU Customs Union Remains a Terrible...
The economic arguments in favour of UK customs union membership with the EU are weak. The...
May doubles down on deception
A senior economist outlines two deceptions at the heart of the Government's Chequers strategy. The...
Brexit and Productivity: A house built on sand
Much of the large negative impacts of Brexit estimated by the Treasury and others depend on an...
The Treasury is Wrong: UK Trade will Shift to Non-EU Countries...
The Treasury claims that UK membership of the EU did not cause any diversion of UK trade away from...
Evidence-based policy or fake news? Eleven Economic Propositions...
The article by a Senior Economist working in the UK private Sector is a longer version of the...
The Limited Impact of EU Membership on Barriers to Trade
A senior private sector economist applies a standard method to measuring trade barriers. The...